By CHARLES HAPPELL
Using the patented Toy Department formula, one that’s stood the test of time and spawned countless imitations, we present the 2010 AFL fixture which ranks each team according to the difficulty of its draw.
The ranking is done by measuring the quality of each team’s opponents, then taking into account extraneous factors such as travel, number of home games and six-day breaks. On top of that, we read the tea leaves in our TTD office mugs, then the entrails of small animals, until finally we settle on a list from 1 (the easiest draw) to 16 (the hardest).
The top five teams, for the purpose of this exercise*, are: Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs. While we tip a slight dip in the fortunes of Geelong and perhaps St Kilda, who cannot possibly have the same luck with injuries as 2009, we think the Crows, who look almost unbeatable at home; a resurgent, revitalised Hawks; and a Barry Hall-inspired Doggies outfit will make the strongest challenges for the flag.
The bottom five teams, based on 2009 form and post-season developments*, are: Melbourne, Richmond, Fremantle, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide. Kangaroos and Port fans might not like that ranking but the off-season rumblings at both clubs does not fill us with confidence. Having said that, the 2010 fixture has done them a big favour. And on the strength of their easier-than-average fixture, Port and the Kangas could well prove us wrong and vault up the ladder. No joy in sight for the Tigers, though, and a wooden spoon beckons.
The remaining six teams end up in the middle-ranking category and they include 2009 finalists Collingwood, Carlton, Essendon and Brisbane, because we think they’ll be leapfrogged by the likes of Hawthorn, or they’ll simply not be as good as last year.
(* BTW, complaints forwarded on the back of an envelope to TTD headquarters please.)
On the matter of travel, Essendon heads interstate just three times, the fewest of any Victorian club, while St Kilda has to pack its bags six times. That load is mitigated for the Saints by the fact they get to play 14 times at Etihad Stadium. Collingwood gets the same number of games at the MCG, including the last seven straight.
So after we fed all the relevant information into our Toy Department computer, it whirred away for hours then spat out the following table. It shows that Adelaide has the least challenging draw of the 16 clubs. In fact, we liked the Crows’ chances of making the grand final before the fixture was released – but we like them an awful lot more now. Twelve games at home, two matches each against Melbourne, Richmond and Freo, yet they only play Geelong and Hawthorn once.
On the flip side, Collingwood, for all their home games, have been dealt a rum hand, as coach Mick Malthouse was quick to tell everyone this afternoon. Essendon have been dealt an equally demanding draw while Freo and Brisbane fans will hardly be dancing in the street.
Here then is the TTD 2010 AFL fixture, by ranking:
v Top 5 v Bottom 5 TTD Rank
ADEL 6 9 1
BRIS 8 5 13
CARL 6 7 5
COLL 9 6 16
ESS 9 5 15
FREM 7 6 14
GEEL 5 5 6
HAW 6 7 4
MELB 7 7 9
N MELB 7 6 7
PORT 8 7 8
RICH 7 7 10
ST K 5 9 2
SYD 8 8 11
W COAST 6 8 3
BULLDOGS 6 6 12
It’s who you play that really matters; not where. The lack of travel is not such a help, unless you’re worried about an ageing player list*. Constant travel does not affect a team’s performance in a given year. Witness the fact that this decade has seen only one team from Melbourne win the flag.
(* The ageing player list is certainly affected over time, however. The WC Eagles, despite the most expensive off-field support resources such as physios etc, struggle to get any player over 30 on the park. They are simply worn out after 150 games.)